The single most useful finding from the data: nearly half of residential burglaries happen during the day, and more than a third involve no forced entry at all, which means the highest-ROI security upgrade is often a locked door, not a smarter lock.

Here is what the primary sources actually say, and what that means for hardware decisions in San Diego.

How to read burglary data without getting misled

Before digging into the numbers, one note on methodology: residential burglary data comes from two main sources, and they measure different things.

FBI UCR (Uniform Crime Reporting) aggregates reports from every police department in the country. It is comprehensive but lags by roughly 12 to 18 months, and it under-counts because many burglaries go unreported.

NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) from the Bureau of Justice Statistics surveys households directly. It catches unreported incidents but has smaller sample sizes for city-level breakdowns.

For San Diego-specific analysis, the San Diego Police Department Annual Crime Report and the California DOJ Open Justice portal are the primary sources. The County Sheriff covers unincorporated areas including Ramona, Alpine, Julian, and the backcountry.

Most “smart lock increases security by X%” stats circulating online are extrapolations or vendor-funded studies. This post excludes those and sticks to government crime data.

The direction is clearly positive. According to the FBI Crime Data Explorer, the U.S. burglary rate fell to 229.2 per 100,000 in 2024, down 9.5% from 2023 and the lowest recorded rate since at least 2005. Residential properties account for 52% of all burglaries nationally.

California mirrors the national trend. California DOJ Open Justice data shows statewide burglary fell 11.8% in 2024 and sits about 20.3% below its 2019 pre-pandemic level. Burglary represents roughly 15% of all property crime in the state.

When something is stolen, the financial hit is real. FBI data from 2023 puts the average property loss in a residential burglary at approximately $5,035, which reframes the cost of a deadbolt upgrade or a lock rekey pretty quickly.

What the San Diego numbers show

The SDPD 2023 Annual Crime Report shows burglary decreased 16% in the City of San Diego in 2023. Of those burglaries, residential properties accounted for 44.7% of the total; commercial properties were 54.7%.

The county picture is more varied. SANDAG data covering 2021 through 2023 across 17 county jurisdictions shows 13 saw burglary decreases in 2023, while 4 saw increases. The spread is wide: San Marcos was down 43%, Oceanside down 3%, Solana Beach up 42%, La Mesa up 1%.

That variance matters. County-level averages hide real differences between cities and neighborhoods, which is why a hardware audit specific to your address is more useful than a headline number.

When do most San Diego burglaries happen?

This is where the data contradicts homeowner intuition.

Bureau of Justice Statistics victimization data shows that roughly 48.8% of burglaries occur during daytime hours versus 45.2% at night. Residential burglaries skew toward daytime specifically, when homes are most reliably empty (people at work, kids at school).

The reason is straightforward: a daytime break-in is easier for an opportunistic burglar to explain to a curious neighbor (“delivery person,” “contractor,” etc.) and the window of unoccupied time is more predictable.

What this means for hardware choices: motion-activated porch lights and night-focused security measures address a smaller share of actual risk than most homeowners assume. The highest-impact hardware upgrade, a Grade-1 deadbolt with a reinforced strike plate, works equally well day or night because it resists the kick-in attack that dominates forced-entry attempts at any hour.

How do burglars actually get in?

BJS data from “Victimization During Household Burglary” provides the clearest entry-method breakdown:

  • Forcible entry: 55.7% of residential burglaries. Damaging or removing a door is the most common method within this category.
  • Unlawful entry with no force: 37.8%. This means an unlocked door or window, no tools required.
  • Attempted forcible entry: the remainder.

Industry analyses of federal crime data find that roughly 56% of burglars enter through a door (approximately 34% front door, 22% back door) and about 23% through a first-floor window. Because no single FBI or BJS table breaks this down to that level of door-vs-window specificity, those figures should be read as estimates from secondary research (see, for example, The Zebra’s burglary statistics analysis) rather than direct government counts.

The practical takeaway is consistent across all the data: doors are the primary attack surface. That makes deadbolt installation and strike-plate reinforcement the highest-ROI physical security upgrade for most homes.

Which San Diego neighborhoods see the most residential burglaries?

SDPD publishes aggregate city data but does not release neighborhood-level residential burglary breakdowns in a form that supports per-capita comparison. What the broader research literature does show: higher-density areas with more renters and predictable commute patterns tend to see higher burglary rates per capita than low-density single-family neighborhoods with retired or work-from-home residents.

For San Diego specifically, a hardware audit matters more in:

  • High-turnover rental areas, where tenants don’t always rekey between leases and key control erodes over time
  • Neighborhoods adjacent to major freeways, where opportunistic targeting is easier because escape routes are close
  • Vacation-rental-heavy zones, where Airbnb and VRBO calendars make “is someone home?” easy to determine in advance

Across every neighborhood type, the same hardware interventions recur in the data.

What hardware actually moves the risk numbers?

Based on the entry-method data above, here is the priority order for hardware upgrades and why each one targets the specific attack patterns that are most common:

1. Lock your doors (free)

Unlawful entry with no force is 37.8% of residential burglaries. The single cheapest intervention is behavioral: lock the door every time you leave. Smart locks with auto-lock solve this mechanically, the deadbolt engages 30 to 60 seconds after the door closes regardless of whether you remembered.

2. Reinforced strike plate with 3-inch screws ($5-10 per door)

Factory 3/4-inch screws anchor the strike plate into the door trim and fail under a kick. Three-inch screws reach the door framing stud and multiply kick-in resistance significantly. This is the highest-security-per-dollar upgrade available, and we include it on every deadbolt installation call.

3. Grade-1 or Grade-2 deadbolt ($120-$280 per door installed)

ANSI/BHMA Grade 1 deadbolts survive 10 impact strikes; Grade 3 (the builder default) fails at 2. For exterior doors, Grade 2 is the minimum we recommend; Grade 1 for higher-risk situations. More at how to choose a Grade-1 deadbolt.

4. Rekey after move-in or key-control concerns ($80-$110 per typical home)

The move-in rekey is a small investment with outsized upside. Builders, contractors, previous tenants, real estate agents, and their family members could all have working keys to the home you just bought. Rekeying invalidates every one of them.

5. Window security (varies, $50-$400 per window)

For ground-floor windows that aren’t visible from the street, window pins or glass-break sensors are the targeted intervention. Not every window needs this; audit which ones are actually exposed.

6. Visible cameras or smart doorbells ($150-$400 per camera)

These work primarily as a deterrent, not a physical barrier. Visible cameras reduce the likelihood of being targeted by opportunistic burglars, though they don’t stop a determined attacker once the decision to enter has been made.

How does all this change if you own a rental or Airbnb?

High-turnover properties face a distinct risk pattern:

  • Key control is weak. Every guest, cleaner, and maintenance contractor has potentially seen or duplicated a key. Rekeying between long-term tenants is a California requirement in many lease scenarios; for short-term rentals, smart locks with rotating guest codes are the standard solution.
  • The “home empty” signal is public. Anyone can check an Airbnb calendar to know when the property is vacant.
  • Hardware gets abused. Guests drop keys, slam doors, and jam mechanisms. Rental-grade hardware holds up; builder-grade doesn’t.

Recommended setup for rentals: keyless deadbolt with per-guest code rotation, Grade-2 exterior deadbolt on every non-front door, reinforced strike plates on all exterior frames.

What the data doesn’t tell you

A few honest caveats:

  1. Under-reporting. NCVS data consistently shows actual victimization rates above what police reports capture. The published numbers are a floor, not a ceiling.
  2. Opportunistic vs. determined. Everything above applies to opportunistic burglars, who are the large majority. A determined attacker targeting a specific property will find an entry method regardless of hardware.
  3. Neighborhood-level variance is large. County-wide averages hide real differences. A property-specific assessment is more useful than aggregate statistics.
  4. Hardware is the last line. Active, observant neighbors are a stronger predictor of not being burglarized than deadbolt grade. Hardware matters most when the social layer is absent.

Methodology

This analysis draws on:

  • FBI Crime Data Explorer, national burglary rate 2024 (cde.ucr.cjis.gov)
  • California Department of Justice Open Justice portal (openjustice.doj.ca.gov)
  • San Diego Police Department 2023 Annual Crime Report
  • SANDAG Criminal Justice Bulletin, Crime in the San Diego Region 2021-2023
  • Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Victimization During Household Burglary” (bjs.ojp.gov)
  • National Institute of Justice, property crime research (nij.ojp.gov)
  • ANSI/BHMA A156.36 standard for deadbolt grade definitions

All specific statistics are cited inline with links to primary sources.

Frequently asked questions

Is San Diego a high-crime city for residential burglary?

SDPD’s 2023 report shows residential burglary decreased 16% in the city in 2023. California DOJ data puts statewide burglary 20.3% below its 2019 level, and nationally the rate hit a multi-decade low in 2024. San Diego tracks or beats both benchmarks. The trend is positive, though variance between county jurisdictions is significant.

Has the pandemic-era burglary drop reverted?

No, based on the available data. The FBI’s 2024 figures show national burglary continuing to fall, not reverting. California’s 2024 DOJ data shows the same trajectory. The 2020-2021 drop appears to have held and extended, not bounced back.

Does installing a security system reduce my insurance?

Most homeowners insurance policies offer a 5-20% discount for monitored alarm systems, reinforced doors, and smoke or fire detection. The exact discount varies by carrier; check with your agent.

What should I do first if I’ve just moved in?

In this order: lock every exterior door and window; schedule a rekey of all exterior locks; inspect strike plates and upgrade to 3-inch screws; test that every deadbolt fully engages; decide whether smart locks or traditional deadbolts fit your lifestyle; add cameras if you want a visible deterrent layer.

Is a Grade-1 deadbolt really necessary for most homes?

No. Grade 2 is adequate for most residential exterior doors in San Diego. Grade 1 is appropriate for higher-risk situations or when someone wants maximum mechanical resistance. For most homeowners, upgrading from Grade 3 builder-grade to Grade 2 combined with a reinforced strike plate is the biggest proportional security gain available.

Want a specific hardware assessment for your home? Our free 12-question home security audit scores your house out of 100 and gives you a prioritized fix list based on the same entry-method data summarized above. Or call (858) 400-4082 (tel:+18584004082) for an in-person walkthrough during any service call.